Nominating Gingrich could be an act of sheer brilliance by Republicans

It has been reported that on the night Ronald Reagan won the GOP nomination in 1980, the Carter reelection team drank champagne and celebrated. They got the opponent they wanted. America would never elect such a right wing candidate....or so they thought.

One thing about Liberals that amazes me. They don't learn from their mistakes. While it is true that Gingrich may not be the most Conservative candidate on paper, he is by far the most tactical and aggressive and the most well-spoken.

Newt would absolutely eat Obama alive in the debates.

However, it is precisely the perception, that Gingrich is an easy target, that could play to the GOP advantage and seal the Democrats' fate. The biggest fear Republicans have right now is that Obama sees the writing on the wall and declines to run for reelection. If that happens, the entire Democratic party coalesces around Hillary and we lose the general election- probably in a rout. Multiple polling confirms this.

I want the Obama team to take Newt lightly.

Could Newt win in an ordinary year? Probably not. But this is no ordinary year. In the same way Reagan won only because of the antipathy towards Carter, history may well be about to repeat itself.

A current Gallup poll shows Newt ahead of Obama 48-45 in the 12 battleground states likely to decide the election. This means Obama is in real trouble. Not ordinary, get the voters energized trouble, but real trouble.

If you look at this in terms of Red States vs Blue States, there is basically a stand off. Both parties bring about 190 electoral votes to the party. It is in the Purple states that the election is decided and Obama, as we have said, is in real trouble. Among true independents, his approval rating is 32%. In other words, Obama is performing worst among the voters he needs most.

The 12 battleground states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

In listing these as the states, there is a tacit admission that Missouri will remain Red and Indiana will return to Red. Let's start from there, using the Electoral College calculator. North Carolina is a state Obama won by only 4,000 votes and he his party has been drubbed in Virginia now, three years in a row. He is dreaming if he thinks he can repeat his wins in either.

This leaves 10 true battlegrounds, totaling 123 Electoral votes to get Obama to 270. He needs about 60% of those available Electoral votes to get there. That is highly unlikely. Obama's approval rating is in the high 30's/ low 40's in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses those three states, he's done. If he wins one, he still must win Florida and most of the others. This would include Nevada- where unemployment is 14%, for example. In fact, there is no scenario where Obama can plausibly lose 3 of the big 4 battlegrounds (Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan) and still go on to victory, especially if the one state he wins is not Florida.

The Obama campaign, in recent weeks, has been touting a delusional plan called the Colorado- Virginia strategy. This plan (a defacto admission that Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania are gone), parlays wins in Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire with a retention of both Colorado and Virginia to eek Obama across the finish line with losses in three of the top 4 battlegrounds.

The plan is pure unadulterated delusion. Virginia is gone.

To win, Obama must hold all those smaller states together and he must win Florida and at least one of Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Ain't gonna happen....ham sandwich wins.